The week oil jumped, the dollar retreated against the toman, and global tech saw a broad correction

Dominant Narrative: Oil Jumps, the Dollar Retreats, and Tech Corrects Without a Clean Pattern

The week ending July 25, 2026 (measured from a July 19 baseline) had three main axes, none of which matched the conventional narrative. On the first axis, the global energy market did not fall but instead posted a notable jump: Brent crude rose 9.85%, climbing from $88.10 to $96.78, including a sharp single-day jump of 12.44% on July 24 that briefly pushed the price to $98.01. WTI crude also rose 9.21%, from $81.78 to $89.31. Only natural gas lagged this upward pattern within the group, falling 0.79%.

On the second axis, contrary to the common assumption, Tehran's free-market dollar fell 1.09% over the week, from 193,000 tomans to 190,900 tomans; the path was not linear—the dollar retreated to 188,400 tomans on July 20, then jumped to 193,700 tomans by July 22, before settling back at 190,900 tomans (a weekly volatility range of 2.81%). Tether, the Emami coin, and 18-karat gold all declined in the same direction.

On the third axis, the global technology market underwent a broad but pattern-less correction—not a clean rotation from hardware to software, but a scattered decline across most names with a small handful of exceptions detailed below. What connects these three axes is that this week's data does not match any of the simplified conventional narratives (an oil crash, a strengthening dollar, a clean tech rotation) and must be interpreted carefully, without assuming a pattern in advance.

Iran's Currency and Gold Market: A Uniform Retreat Across Currency Assets

The free-market dollar started the week at 193,000 tomans, fell to 188,400 tomans on July 20, rebounded to 193,700 tomans by July 22, and closed the week at 190,900 tomans—a 1.09% decline from the start of the week. Tether fell 1.63%, from 193,500 to 190,350 tomans.

Other foreign currencies also declined, precisely because the free-market dollar rate (the basis for converting them to tomans) fell: the euro dropped 1.59%, from roughly 220,696 tomans to 217,187 tomans; the pound fell 1.97% to 254,355 tomans; the UAE dirham fell 1.09% to 51,982 tomans; the Turkish lira fell 1.55% and the Chinese yuan fell 0.95%. This uniform direction shows that the primary driver was the base free-market dollar rate, not independent movement in any single currency.

In precious metals, the global gold ounce rose 0.88% to $4,052.88, but its toman equivalent fell only 0.22%, because of the simultaneous drop in the dollar rate, moving from roughly 775.38 million tomans to 773.69 million tomans per ounce. Domestic silver rose 3.05%, from 10,794,790 tomans to 11,124,060 tomans per ounce. The Emami coin fell 2.65%, from 189 million tomans to 184 million tomans, while 18-karat gold fell 2.42%, from 18,784,340 tomans to 18,329,560 tomans per gram.

Global Energy Market: Brent's Jump With a Striking Midweek Peak

With a 9.85% weekly gain, Brent crude was the best-performing asset covered in this report. Its path was irregular: the price started at $88.10 on July 19, hovered around $87 on July 22-23, then jumped 12.44% in a single day on July 24 to reach $98.01, before easing slightly to close the week at $96.78. This single-day jump was sharp enough to suggest a sudden supply shock or geopolitical risk event; however, the exact source of that shock cannot be identified from price data alone and should not be attributed to any specific event without independent confirmation.

WTI crude followed a similar pattern, rising 9.21% from $81.78 to $89.31. RBOB gasoline rose 1.88%, from $3.19 to $3.25, and heating oil rose 4.02%, from $3.94 to $4.10. Only natural gas moved in the opposite direction within this group, falling 0.79% (from $2.91 to $2.89). For Iran's economy as an oil exporter, a sustained rise in global crude prices could help improve the government's foreign exchange revenue—the opposite of a narrative built around a hypothetical oil price decline, which is not supported by this week's data.

Global Technology: A Broad Correction Without a Uniform Pattern

A Small Group of Gainers

Among the wide range of technology names covered, only a small group posted gains: Broadcom (+2.99%), Nvidia (+1.99%), JD.com (+1.92%), Siemens (+1.55%), Yatra Online (+2.21%), Spotify (+0.94%), SAP (+0.60%), ASML (+0.54%), Wipro (+0.54%), and Sify Technologies (+0.71%). This list shows no clear geographic or sector pattern—both hardware names (Nvidia, Broadcom, ASML) and software names (SAP, Spotify) appear on it.

Broad Declines Across Most Names

By contrast, the vast majority of the names covered declined. In the US: Tesla (-17.80%), Oracle (-9.03%), Meta (-7.87%), Google (-7.80%), Amazon (-6.12%), Salesforce (-4.16%), Microsoft (-3.08%), and Apple (-0.22%, essentially flat) all fell. The S&P 500 fell 0.61%, from 7,457.69 to 7,411.98—a far milder decline than most individual tech names, indicating the pressure was concentrated in specific companies rather than the broader US equity market.

In Chinese tech, only JD.com stayed positive; the rest declined: Tencent (-5.89%), Bilibili (-4.88%), XPeng (-8.87%), NIO (-7.99%), Alibaba (-2.46%), PDD Holdings (-1.76%), Baidu (-1.77%), and Li Auto (-2.18%). In European tech, alongside gains for SAP, ASML, and Siemens, STMicroelectronics posted the worst performance in this entire report at -16.95%; Nokia (-10.08%), Ericsson (-4.89%), Adyen (-4.66%), Arm Holdings (-2.69%), and Infineon (-1.42%) also declined. In Indian tech, alongside gains for Wipro and Sify, HDFC Bank (-11.94%), MakeMyTrip (-9.87%), Dr. Reddy's (-6.43%), Infosys (-3.31%), ICICI Bank (-0.84%), and TCS (-0.65%) all fell.

This scattered pattern—with no clear dividing line between hardware/software or between geographic regions—shows that the past week should not be explained with a simplified "liquidity rotation" narrative. Steep declines occurred simultaneously in names from both categories (software's Oracle, hardware's STMicro), just as gains occurred simultaneously in names from both categories (hardware's Nvidia, software's SAP).

Crypto: A Uniform Decline Against Both the Dollar and the Toman

Bitcoin fell 0.57% in the global market, from $64,396 to $64,028. In toman terms, due to the simultaneous decline in the free-market dollar rate, Bitcoin's decline widened to 1.65%, from roughly 12.428 billion tomans to 12.223 billion tomans. Ethereum fell 0.67% globally, from $1,869.67 to $1,857.22; its toman equivalent fell 1.75%, from roughly 360.85 million tomans to 354.54 million tomans. Contrary to the usual assumption, this week's crypto market did not show a two-sided divergence but rather a uniform decline—albeit of differing magnitude—against both the dollar and the toman.

Industrial Metals and Agricultural Commodities: A Different Picture Than the Conventional Narrative

In industrial metals, copper rose 1.48%, from $6.27 to $6.36, and the Steel ETF rose 3.26% to $103.49. Aluminum was essentially flat, dipping only 0.09% to $3,448.75.

In agricultural commodities, contrary to a "triple grain decline" pattern, only wheat fell (-0.70%, to $678), while corn rose 4.23% and soybeans rose 4.20%. Rice fell 0.25% and cotton rose 1.22%. Coffee, contrary to an earlier narrative of growth, actually fell 2.12%, from $304.70 to $298.25. Cocoa fell 4.97% and sugar fell 0.41%.

Operational Implications for Iranian Market Participants

Oil: A Revenue Opportunity, Not a Pressure Point

Brent crude's 9.85% jump, if sustained, could directly boost foreign exchange revenue from oil exports—the reverse of an analysis built around a hypothetical oil price decline. However, given the sharp, single-day nature of the July 24 spike (+12.44%), the possibility that part of this gain reverses in coming weeks cannot be ruled out.

Currency: Relative Stability Rather Than Immediate Inflationary Pressure

The 1.09% decline in the free-market dollar, alongside a parallel decline in tether, gold coins, and toman-denominated gold, points to a relatively calmer week in the domestic currency market—though the 2.81% midweek volatility range (between 188,400 and 193,700 tomans) shows that this calm was fragile and should not be read as a long-term trend.

Technology: Avoiding Decisions Based on Simplified Narratives

The absence of a uniform pattern in global tech (simultaneous declines in both hardware and software names, alongside scattered gains in both categories) means that investment strategies premised on a "clean rotation from one segment to another" would not have worked this particular week. Iranian companies active in technology and equipment imports should base decisions on up-to-date, ticker-specific data rather than a general sector narrative.

Forward Outlook: Uncertainty Across All Three Axes

Based on this week's data, three key risks/opportunities can be identified for the period ahead:

• Durability of the oil jump: Given the sharp, single-day nature of the July 24 spike, it remains to be seen whether Brent stabilizes above $95 or gives back part of this gain.
• Direction of the free-market dollar: With a 2.81% weekly volatility range, Tehran's currency market is still in a price-discovery phase, and next week's direction cannot be reliably extrapolated from a single week of data.
• Uncertainty in technology: Given the absence of a uniform pattern in tech gains and losses, analyses built on broad narratives (software outperforming hardware, or China outperforming the US) should be revisited with greater caution.

Overall, the week ending July 25 offers a clear lesson: raw price data, not conventional market assumptions, should form the basis of analysis. Oil jumped instead of crashing, the dollar fell instead of strengthening, and technology underwent a scattered correction instead of a clean rotation. Iranian market participants should rely on documented, up-to-date data when interpreting market events and avoid accepting pre-formed narratives without verification.